CNN stated that Biden will become the 46th president of the United States. CNN predicts that after Biden won Pennsylvania, he has received the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. According to the report, adding the 20 electoral votes in Pennsylvania, Biden now has 273 electoral votes.
Later, the Democratic presidential candidate Biden tweeted, American people, I am honored that you have chosen me to lead our great country.
“The work before us will be arduous, but I assure you: I will become a president who serves all Americans, regardless of whether you vote for me or not. I will live up to your trust in me.”
The characteristics of the Biden administration compared with the Trump administration
Trump is an alternative president. During his administration, he imposed maximum pressure on China by the entire government, which brought us a lot of pressure. But the Trump administration followed his feelings, abandoning professionals and using some weird people, so there are many loopholes. This brings us many opportunities.
More importantly, Trump himself is the product of the tears in the United States. After he took office, he further tore the United States and promoted its further decline. Under the banner of “America First”, he forced allies to pay more protection fees; his all-out trade war and arrogant attitude also greatly hurt the hearts of allies. These have greatly loosened the United States’ allies system and brought opportunities for our diplomacy. Trump’s continuous withdrawal from the group has enabled China to naturally expand its influence in international organizations.
The Biden team will be very different from the Trump team. Biden has been vice president for 8 years and has many contacts in American politics. Biden is old and lacking in energy, and will definitely rely more on the establishment team. Therefore, compared with the simplicity and rudeness of Trump’s administration, Biden’s team will be more professional.
For China, dealing with the Biden administration is much more complicated and requires careful strategic and tactical thinking. Otherwise, if we are not careful, we will fall into the trap they set for us.
Another difference between the Biden administration and the Trump administration is that it places more emphasis on ideology. After Trump took office, he cut a lot of funds used to promote color revolutions around the world. After Biden takes power, these funds will be restored, and the United States will increase its ideological containment and attack on China. If the Trump administration wants your money, the Biden administration wants your life.
In addition, Biden is old and lacking energy, and it is very likely that he will form a US government with a weak president. In this case, the US Congress will play a greater role. We know that the U.S. Congress is made up of a bunch of guys who are very ideological and not pragmatic. A greater role for Congress will obviously cause more trouble to China.
One of the directions that the Biden administration is pushing toward China and our response is to increase the ideological containment and attack on China. China should “thank” Trump most for educating a generation of Chinese people. Before Trump, China’s public knowledge was still very marketable and still had a great influence on the younger generation of China. But Trump exposed the essence of the US imperialism nakedly. Lao Tzu is number one in the world. As long as you don’t listen to Lao Tzu, Lao Tzu will beat you.
After the Biden administration comes to power, it will once again put a beautiful coat on the U.S. Emperor. But after Trump’s tossing, the camouflage ability of this coat was greatly reduced.
More importantly, the U.S. has been unfavorable in fighting the epidemic, exposing its political system and ideology. The United States’ one-person-one-vote democratic election system and the set of freedom and human rights values have greatly reduced the attractiveness of the Chinese people. Therefore, the Biden administration will hardly be able to recover.
However, the Biden administration will be more capable of forming gangs than the Trump administration. The United States will gather Western countries, especially with the European Union, to attack and discredit China ideologically. In the future, the Biden administration will increase its attacks and containment on China on the issues of Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Tibet, as well as human rights and political systems.
Second, increase the containment of China’s economy
After Bi comes on stage, he is likely to rejoin TPP and undermine the landing of RCEP. After Trump withdrew from the TPP, Japan continued to pull in the United States while turning the remaining TPP into a mini version of the TPP. Moreover, after India withdrew from RCEP, Japan threatened to advance and retreat with India. Under this circumstance, if the United States rejoins the TPP, Japan is likely to use an excuse to advance and retreat with India and not sign the RCEP. If this happens, RCEP will lose its meaning and China will face difficult choices.
Obama’s purpose in creating the TPP is to give China a dilemma: either follow the path the US has planned for China, or be isolated from the free trade zones of major economies. If China follows the path planned by the United States, it will lose its own advantages; on the contrary, if it refuses to join the TPP, it will be excluded from the free trade zone composed of major economies.
In addition, the Biden administration will negotiate TTIP with the European Union. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (ttip) is a bilateral free trade agreement between the United States and Europe. The topics include trade in services, government procurement, rules of origin, technical trade barriers, agriculture, customs, and trade facilitation. Although the relationship between TTIP and China is not as great as that of TPP, if the negotiation is completed, the relationship between the United States and Europe will surely be strengthened. If the Biden administration puts pressure on the EU again and undermines the signing of the China-EU investment and trade agreement, it will be very detrimental to China.
To deal with this situation, China’s best path is to increase reform and opening up, and the best way to join TPP. TPP is not a tiger. Maybe it can’t eat China, but it is still an opportunity. If China joins the TPP, just like joining the World Trade Organization that year, it further promotes the standardization of the market and creates greater attraction to global capital, and China will win completely.
The Biden administration may cooperate with China in the following areas:
First, cooperate with China in the fight against the epidemic
Trump’s fight against the epidemic is unfavorable to throw away China, and the Democratic Party blames the Trump administration for the unfavorable fight against the epidemic. Therefore, Biden’s coming to power may change the US strategy of discrediting China and choose to cooperate with China in the fight against the epidemic. After all, cooperating with China to fight the epidemic mainly benefits the United States. As long as the Biden administration controls the epidemic, it will win the support of the American people. Why not?
Second, the trade war may stop, and the technological war will be reduced.
The United States has not taken advantage of launching a trade war with China. Therefore, in the presidential election debate, neither party focused on the Sino-US trade war. For Trump, there is nothing to talk about; for Biden, he dare not emphasize stopping the trade war with China. But Biden did say that he might remove the high tariffs imposed on China.
If it is a high probability event for Biden to stop the trade war with China, it is unlikely to stop the technical blockade against China. Not only will the Biden administration not stop the technological blockade against China, but will instead work with Western countries to increase the technological blockade against China. But unlike the Trump administration, the Biden administration should be selective in increasing its blockade of China, rather than blindly reckless. In addition, the possibility of scientific and technological cooperation between the United States and China in certain areas is not ruled out.
Third, personnel exchanges will resume, but the Biden government will restrict Chinese students from taking sensitive majors.
The Trump administration’s sabotage of personnel exchanges between China and the United States will hurt both sides. After Biden takes office, normal exchanges between China and the United States will resume. However, the United States will also restrict Chinese students from choosing sensitive majors and increase the protection of American technological advantages.
Fourth, cooperate with China on climate issues.
Biden will definitely rejoin the Paris Agreement and cooperate with China on global climate issues. The United States is a big country with oil, gas and coal resources. Trump’s withdrawal from the “Paris Agreement” loosens the US energy industry and will indeed stimulate the US economy. But from a global perspective, controlling greenhouse gas emissions is the general trend. If the United States blindly resists, not only will it lose its influence on this issue, it will also lose the opportunity to develop a new energy industry.
In addition, China and the EU both attach great importance to the new energy industry because they both need to import large amounts of energy. China and the EU will not only lead the global trend, but also join forces against the United States, which is obviously detrimental to the United States.
Fifth, to cooperate with China on the issue of nuclear proliferation control.
After Biden takes power, he is likely to rejoin the Iran nuclear agreement and cooperate with China, Europe and Russia on nuclear proliferation. China has signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with Iran when Trump has increased sanctions on Iran. The lifting of sanctions against Iran by the United States has brought benefits to China’s comprehensive cooperation with Iran. At the time when the Trump administration exerted extreme pressure on Iran, European companies withdrew from Iran one after another, while Chinese companies took advantage of the opportunity to buy their assets in Iran. After the US lifts sanctions, these assets will surely double in value. In addition, many opportunities for European and American companies to enter Iran again are gone. Therefore, China should really thank Trump in this regard.
Sixth, to cooperate with China in combating Islamic terrorism.
Islamic terrorism is the public enemy of mankind, and many Islamic countries suffer from it. Before Trump, China and the United States worked hand in hand in combating Islamic terrorist organizations. In order to decouple from China, the Trump administration does not even want China and the United States to jointly fight Islamic terrorist organizations. This is not wise.
Biden’s coming to power has advantages and disadvantages for China. What we need to do is face it positively and deal with it calmly.
Post time: Nov-10-2020